Top-Down Market Insight

 

Moraine Lake, Banff National Park, Albert by Fikret Onal - 2642882266_5267904314_z

 

The recent narrowing of interest rate spreads means a more confidently bullish message for US equities from Wainwright Economics’ asset class classification model. Yet, from a valuation standpoint the economics and investment research firm sees the short-term recovery path for the S&P 500 as continuing to signal nil upside. The nagging question for head of research, David Ranson is, have we moved-on from the relevance of shorter term caution or should we doubt the bullish message for equities from the firm’s keystone gold/spreads analysis?

Ranson claims that the bullish stock market message is real but should not be expected to last long. The “nil upside” reading in Wainwright’s analysis signals that recovery from the 2008-09 selloff and subsequent setbacks is complete. So, unlike equities in the Eurozone and BRIC economies, US stocks are fully valued.

Historically, according to Wainwright, the vital factor in stock-market performance is the constancy…

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