COAL MINING SECTOR: The Impact of China Low-Cal Coal Import Ban

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 The Impact of China Low-Cal Coal Import Ban

China Considers to Ban Low-cal Coal Import
Surprised news came from China where its National Energy Administration (NEA) is considering a proposal to ban coal with a net calorific value of 4,540 kcal/kg on NAR basis or less (equals to 4,800 kcal/kg on GAR basis). The proposal will potentially affect Indonesia’s low-cal coal shipping to the country. Recently, Indonesia is the largest low-cal coal shipper to China with annual export volume of around 100 mn metric ton, which is classed as lignite according to Chinese custom data. If the proposal were to be imposed this year, we expect the impact would hit Indonesia coal export in 2014. Looking out coal company under our coverage; PTBA, ADRO, and ITMG, we found that they have less impact on the proposed coal import policy. Export volume exposures to China during FY12 were 26%, 11%, and…

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